The estimates vary from source to source, but there is generally an agreement that earth can not support more than 5 billion people, however most estimates fall between 1 and 3 billions. I put my own estimate at 1 billion.
How do I arrive at this 1 billion figure? For starters, I want everyone to have a good living standard and to have an amount of unemployment of no more than 5%; currently world wide unemployment is 30%, so based on unemployment alone, the number of people on planet earth should be less than 4.5 billions. Further more, not only do I want a very low rate of unemployment, but also I would like to eliminate meaningless jobs, these are easily more than 50% of the jobs in the market. Another 20% of the jobs can be eliminated due to a smaller market when humanity down sizes and also due to technical innovations.
So how will we get from almost 7 billion people to just 1 billion? Well, I doubt that any thing can be done about China in the short run, as it already has a one child per family law. As for India, I think a lot can be done; a combination of financial incentives, family planning programs, education, and a two child per family law might be able to slow down the population explosion. If this is successful, maybe 10 years later a one child per family law can be enacted.
As for the muselm world, the same tactics can be used as I suggested for India, however a big problem is the opposition of religious authorties to family planning and abortion. From an Islamic jurisprudence point of view, there is a loophole that can be exploited, exceptions and reverasl of fatwas can be done if the clerics are convinced that humanity is heading for distatser and that there is no otherway but to issue new fatwas that not only allow family planning but encourage it. Once this is done, the various governements can start a two child per family limit program, or financial incentives for people not to have more kids, or to have them later than sooner.
Similarly, in south america and other areas under the hold of the catholic church, the catholic church needs to see the light and reconsider it positions in view of the iminemnt threat. I think the pope is a reasonable person and someone might be able to talk the him out of his position.
Reducing the population of humans is not a hopeless case, at least a dozen countries with a good living standard are having their populations decrease(not on purpose,) so clearly it is doable.
So once the population starts to decrease, it would be a great opportunity to redraw the map of the world in an envirnemtally smart manner; most people would live in areas with moderate climates. To me it makes no sense that people live in countries were you need to have the AC on 24/7, or where you need to keep the heating on most of the year. The greatest hurdles are natinalism and the fact that people would not be happy about leaving their own country, just for envirnmental reasons.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
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